“Lifting EU visa sanctions against Belarusian officials will depend on presidential election in Belarus”



Europe extended moratorium on visa sanctions against Belarusian officials half a year more. The reporter of www.Euramost.org asked political analyst Yury Shevtsov to comment on Europe’s decision.

-- As recently as a week ago in the interview for www.Euramost.org you said that the foreign policy of Belarus in the nearest future will highly depend on the decision about visa sanctions. Now the decision is taken and it disagrees with the ideal Belarusian authorities were dreaming about. What will be the reaction of the official Minsk and what retaliation measures can it take?

-- Most probably there will be some verbal condemnation of this decision by Foreign Ministry. Our Foreign Ministry spoke up for a complete lifting of sanctions continually and quite sharply. But probably they will confine themselves to such verbal condemnation. It’s a normal decision for Belarus, in principle. The moratorium is prolonged half a year more. This means that we have half a year more to improve relations with Europe more that it was done during previous half a year of sanctions.



-- You’ve said that if Belarus didn’t like the decision of Europe, the official Minsk would recognize the independence of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. Shall we expect such actions?

-- It’s hard to say because the president doesn’t seem to approve this deputies’ trip to Southern Ossetia, Abkhazia and Georgia. At least we didn’t hear any news about it. And it’s not clear if he would approve the trip now…



--Could they go for this trip without coordination with the president?!

- Of course they couldn’t. But I think that if even this question is approved now, it won’t be a problem for the future. Even if we somehow recognize the independence of these two republics we will still have half a year to decide this question with the West.



-- So is it to prove Europe that there is nothing frightful in this decision for them and for our relations with European Union?

-- Lately new arguments on this topic appeared. Probably, the West will be also happy if Belarus recognizes these two republics. I mean the Medvedev’s decree about devolution of almost all Russian troops and force structures at the Caucasus under Kadyrov’s commandment.



-- And how is it connected with the recognition by Belarus of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia and our relations with Europe?

-- Everyone knows methods of Kadyrov. If these methods spread over other republics of the Caucasus, this will keep on toes all right defenders of the West! And then these two republics which won’t let Kadyrov to their territories can participate in the European game at the Caucasus.



-- But you’ve said that this dissatisfaction of Belarus by the decision of European Union can result refusal to transmit Ukrainian electro energy to Lithuania through our territory. Does this take the question off the table?

-- Yes, it does. But we already have agreement with Ukraine. We kind of won this long-term war and now the conditions under which we will get the electric energy from Ukraine are fantastic. And now we have enough energy to sell it to Lithuania.



-- Lukashenko has half a year more of sanctions moratorium. What should we expect in a half a year?

-- I think that they will prolong moratorium in half a year. The West is waiting for local election in Belarus and how it will happen. They want to see what will happen to our opposition. And the reaction on presidential election will come after the appraisal of local election by the West. And, most probably, after presidential election the question of lifting the sanction will be fully decided.



Dmitry KRAMCHUK