Andrey Kazakievich: “Changes in relationship between EU and Belarus were allusive and cosmetic”



Belarusian official propaganda called last year the “year of breaking though” in relations with European Union. The reporter of www.Euramost.org asked the politologists Andrey KAZAKIEVICH about how independent experts evaluate changes in those relations.

-- How do you evaluate quality of the changes happened to relations between Belarus and Europe? -- The relations became stable in 2009. In the second half of 2008 there were some events, which could be called breaking through, then during the whole 2009 we could observe some dynamics in relations’ development and later everything became stable and developed gradually and even. In any case some melting of relations between Belarus and European Union can be observed: there are visits of European officials to our country, there are trips of Lukashenko to European countries, and there is Eastern Partnership and so on. The relations became of a new quality. Formally Europe knows that in Belarus there are problems with democracy, but it just closes its eyes on some things, to have an opportunity to negotiate with Belarusian authorities. From one side, European Union doesn’t deny its former declarations, and from the other side it doesn’t hinder European countries to cooperate with Belarus. And talking about Belarus, some quality changes in realization of cooperation with European Union took place. But these changes work only until questions about changes of the regime are set. Cooperation in spheres of economics, culture, or anything else is possible only with the remaining political system. All those quality relationship changes which took place last year define the balance of the first and the second question. – Can we say that the authorities recaptured the initiative of mending the relationship with European Union from the opposition? – I wouldn’t use the phrase “recapture the initiative” – subjects of different levels are involved here. And opposition and authorities also have contacts of different levels. But we should admit that the interest of European structures to contacts with Belarusian opposition became weaker. And this changed the configuration of political relationship of Belarus and European Union which we observed 10 years a lot. – Does the fact that Belarusian authorities readily respond to economic suggestions of EU but totally ignore political demands, seal these relationships? – Nonfulfillment of “12 points” and continuing violations of rights and freedoms of citizens certainly seal the relationships. And we can see it first of all in the fact that there are no strategic decisions about what the relationships will be in the future. EU doesn’t take off the agenda its political demands. But in the same time many European structures admitted that politics of isolation is not effective and that regime is for long and it’s necessary to draw it somehow into the sphere of European interests. They came to the conclusion that drawing in and economic cooperation is a better way to encourage processes o democratization than politics of isolation, support of opposition and so on. – So we can come to a conclusion that last year Belarus went forward to Europe. Did it come far in its way? – I wouldn’t say that it came far. But even those concessions which were made by Belarusian authorities last year have led to the fact that Europe made great concessions to Belarusian regime. Let it be not concession but the great wish to improve relationships. This gave great possibilities for Belarusian authorities in economic cooperation, for breakthrough of diplomatic embargo etc. The results of this moving towards are symbolic and are not of irreversible character. They are not connected with changes of government institutions and with some profound changes of the regime. And what is more important - they are not connected with changes of conditions of political games within Belarus. That’s why changes in relationship between EU and Belarus were allusive and cosmetic. Major mistakes and violations of the regime are taken into account and corrected somewhere, but nothing more. Everything else remained unchanged. Vasil SLUSHNY