Yaroslav Romanchuk: “We’ll keep on pumping our economics with credits…”



How did Belarusian economics work in 2009 and what shall it expect this year? The reporter of www.Euramost.org talks to the economist Yaroslav Romanchuk about the issue.

- The main events of the year are utopianism and carelessness of Belarusian authorities facing progressing crisis, - says the economist. – It means that none of those authorities’ programs (even one written on liberalization) was realized. Declarations on liberalization and reforms were narrowed down to realization of formalities and imitations. Business-climate and its improvement remained unchanged inspire of insists of entrepreneurs and representatives of small business. Tax burden remained unchangeably high. That’s why Belarus has lost another year though even the Ministry of Statistics couldn’t hide evidences of crisis. We keep on ignoring the evident fact that Belarusian socialistic plan economics isn’t compatible with post-crisis measures. And we keep on working to fill warehouses, keep on working for the past. The whole last year we worked to fill warehouses, for archaic ideology of our authorities. – And what is your opinion about credit economics? – It was crazy. A country should take out credits when it has a modernization plan and when it has an idea about what would happen after this country buys something, modernizes and starts selling and returning credits. We took out credits to eat them away, to keep status quo, and literally saying, we took them to do nothing. Meanwhile the debt service expenses increase almost twofold and they exceed culture expenses threefold. If moving this speed, in the nearest future all these expenses are bigger than all the expenses for education and public health service. This is a dead way end, a way to nowhere. Social sabotage the foundation of which kept being laid this year. – But ruble remained comparatively stable… - This wasn’t the goal in itself. If we put totem and everybody dance around it and sacrifice animals, it’s one thing. But the politics, in my opinion, didn’t correspond the reality. They should have liberalize exchange market and see what is with the exchange rate. The main problem – balance of payments deficit - isn’t solved. And we were busy with the remaining of the exchange rate of ruble at the rapid decline in exports and currency earnings. It’s a great burden for the reserves of National Bank. And it doesn’t give anything good. We haven’t declined currency rate, but at the same time we have worsened situation in banks and many enterprises. And with such politics we also were not very attractive for investors. They see that all this is unstable. – So, will we get investments? In my opinion, if there is money – they are not mass investments, but single purchases at the barrel of need. As it happened to Belpromstroybank. I think it’s possible that the authorities will sell unprepared enterprises; they will sell them behind-the-scenes by half-shade schemes. And of course it won’t be a privatization; it’ll be a special kind of debt compensation. To pay the debt one must sell some family treasures. And we will sell treasures to make an impression that everything is all right, though our own house is rather weak and starts ruining. - What is your forecast for the next year? – It will be a year of political games. It means that the common sense will hide more. The economics will be pumped with credits and the will affect inflation. The Ministry of Statistics and the ruling organs won’t notice inflation because it’s not profitable for them. People will be fooled by the information that they will earn on bank deposits, though people will loose money that way. And my forecast is based on the information which is in the two main written economic documents of our country. And on the main courses of our credit-money politics. If next year National Bank increases quantity of money forty percent more, I think it will burry deposits, ruble rate and stability. I don’t see any grounds to think that there will be reforms next year. Because nobody starts them in the eve of presidential campaign. We will catch at different straws, at different investors and will gradually give away some actives including those credit lines which will be opened by Sberbank (Savings Bank) of Russia. Exchange of encumbrance of shares of enterprises. And if we believe the documents of the National Bank of Belarus, next year the ruble will be devaluated minimum 30 percent more. Aleksandr SAMUSIEVICH.