Andrey Kazakievich: “Belarus today’s relations with European Union is a balance within an acceptable corridor”



On November 2 the ambassadors of EU countries met Vladimir Makey the head of the President’s Administration. The ambassador of Poland Henryk Litwin told journalists that it was a routine meeting at which the cooperation perspectives of Belarus and European Union were discussed. Litwin also noted that this meeting “didn’t have any connection to the EU Council” which will consider the question of visa sanctions in the case of Belarusian officials. The reporter of www.Euramost.org asked politologists Andrey Kazakievich to comment on the meeting.

- Maybe they didn’t talk about anything important at this meeting, but isn’t it some kind of signal to Belarusian opposition? These meetings seem to become working meetings in fact.

- Indeed, such contacts become usual and there is nothing extraordinary in it. Something we call “improvement of relations of Belarus and EU countries” lasts already a year. Such improvement means direct contacts between the representatives of these countries and Belarusian authorities. And as for the importance of these meeting for our opposition, the situation has really changed a lot: European countries have partially legitimated Belarusian regime. And every political party must recon with it in one or another extent. But this doesn’t mean that Europe refuses those conditions which it laid down to the regime before that. Europe will continue demanding graduate democratization f Belarus and opposition can play a certain role in this process.



- Litvin states that nothing was told about the sanctions against Belarusian officials and the question will be decided this month. Does the Administration try to impress and to turn the scale in deciding of this question to their own side by agreeing to take part in these meetings?

- It’s quite possible that the official topics of these meetings will be different: for example the perspective of cooperation of Belarus and European Union. But anyway Belarusian side will rouse the question of lifting the sanctions against Belarusian officials. It’s not essential actually from the functional point of view but it’s a very important symbolic factor. Lately we don’t have any direct critics of Belarus from European countries. And Belarusian authorities can count on graduate lifting of the sanctions. Perhaps they will be lifted now or withhold.



-Shall we expect that in the case of lifting of sanctions Lukashenko will “tour” around Europe?

- Lifting of sanctions first will indicate de facto that Europe believes that the situation with human rights in Belarus improved. This will give an opportunity to improve foreign political status of Belarus. As for the voyages, it won’t be a “tour”. But the visits are being planned. And the reasons are needed: negotiations, making up decisions… There were informal and formal contacts over the course of the year. And they will be in future. They don’t need a tour for the sake of tour. With all the sanctions we don’t see a complete isolation of Belarusian officials.



- There is an impression that EU aims to involve Belarus to the sphere of its influence and nothing can influence this decision, no matter what Lukashenko does. Are there any limits at all?

- Well, there are some certain limits of cause. European Union is ready to lead such policy towards Belarus until it takes rapid actions which can be characterized as repressive. And it won’t necessarily be a question of democratization or liberalization but the questions of minimal standards of freedom of political processes, human rights and so on will still be important. They will insist on not appliance of repressions towards opposition such as criminal responsibility, brutal treatment of mass media and so on. But this doesn’t foresee an obligatory liberalization of information market and absolutely free and clear elections. It’s a balance within an acceptable corridor. They look for tolerance from the Belarusian authorities. If actions are harsh and radical the relations will take a turn for the worse.



Vasil SLUSHNY